By Karen Ocamb

Anything can happen in the weeks before the fast-approaching Nov. 7 elections. But barring something startling, most polls indicate that California voters will re-elect Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. The fear for some Democrats is that a strong showing for the celebrity governor will affect important down-ticket statewide races.

Since State Treasurer Phil Angelides’ difficult primary race against State Controller Steve Westly, the governor’s Democratic challenger has had a hard time energizing the base and winning converts, despite such liberal positions as vowing to sign a marriage equality bill.

To make matters worse for Angelides, some gay Democrats note the significant role played by blue-dog Democrat Susan Kenney, Schwarzenegger’s chief of staff, in resurrecting his tattered reputation after last year’s disastrous special election and think he might sign the marriage bill he vetoed last year.

However, “We don’t know who Arnold will be next year,” Bob Stern, president of the Center for Government Studies, told IN on Bob Jimenez’s Week in Review on Time Warner cable.

In a wide-ranging interview with the governor on Oct. 11, the San Francisco Chronicle editorial board asked “Which Schwarzenegger—the conservative who dismissed Democrats as ‘girlie men’ or the moderate who works with them—will voters get if they re-elect him in November?” Schwarzen-egger said, “There is only one Arnold,” pointing to his policies on environmental protections and bipartisan judicial appointments as proof of his consistency.

Asked about his position on same-sex marriage, Schwarzen-egger said, "It's up to the people" to decide whether to overturn Prop. 22, which defined marriage as between a man and a woman. But, after a pause, he took no position on overturning the measure, telling the board, "I'll have to get back to you." Hours later, the paper reported, “a spokesman for the governor called the Chronicle back to clarify Schwarzenegger's position, saying that ‘Schwarzenegger personally supports domestic partnership, not gay marriage.’“

Indeed, on Sept. 30, Schwarzen-egger signed Senate Bill 1827, the State Income Tax Equity Act, authored by San Francisco Sen. Carole Migden and sponsored by Equality California (EQCA). The landmark bill enables registered domestic partners to file state income taxes jointly and have their earned income treated as community property for state tax purposes. "This is a historic day for equality," Migden said in a press release. "The governor's signature on my tax equity bill gives lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) families, who share the same costs and responsibilities that go with parenthood or being a spouse, the same tax benefits afforded to married couples.” (Board of Equalization Chair John Chiang has been holding free forums to explain how the new law works. For more information, e-mail charles.taylor@boe.ca.gov.)

Right-wingers were not happy. “Schwarzenegger and the Democrat-controlled Legislature have conspired to create counterfeit marriage or ‘gay marriage by another name,’ and jam their social engineering upon every community for every child to see. There is now no difference in California law between marriage rights for a husband and wife and marriage rights for homosexuals,” said Randy Thomasson, president of Campaign for Children and Families.

In the past two years, EQCA sponsored and sent to the governor a record 14 pieces of pro-equality legislation, and EQCA reported, more LGBT bills were passed during the 2005-2006 legislative session than ever before in our nation's history. "I am proud to participate in a Legislature where equality is a core value and applaud Equality California, the Legislative LGBT Caucus, and those legislators sponsoring equality measures for their important work," said Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez.

Of the 14 bills, Schwarzenegger signed 10 and vetoed four, including the marriage equality bill and state Sen. Sheila Kuehl’s SB 1437, the Bias Free Curriculum Act. “Since we amended the bill simply to bar discrimination in official teaching materials, I an extremely disappointed that the governor chose to respond to a small, shrill group of right-wing extremists rather than a fair-minded majority of Californians who support this reasonable measure,” Kuehl said.

But some Democrats are looking beyond the Nov. 7 elections. If Schwarzenegger wins re-election, the thinking goes, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa will run against San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom in the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary. If GOP social conservative Tom McClintock, swept up by a Schwarzenegger landslide, wins his tight race against Democratic stalwart and gay-friendly Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi for the lieutenant governor spot, McClintock will be easy to beat as the presumed Republican challenger.

Two Democrats running for statewide office with strong name-recognition—Oakland Mayor and former Gov. Jerry Brown, who is running for attorney general, and Atty. Gen. Bill Lockyer, a candidate for treasurer—are expected to win handily. But a Schwarzenegger sweep could affect other races: GOP Silicon Valley tycoon Steve Poizner is running a strong negative campaign against former Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante for insurance commissioner; former GOP Assemblymember Tony Strickland is running against gay-friendly John Chiang for controller; and the race for secretary of state between GOP moderate Bruce McPherson, who is seeking re-election, and gay-friendly state Sen. Debra Bowen.

“The most important election in the state this year is not the race for the governor’s seat. It is the race for secretary of state,” writes Kuehl in an e-mail supporting Bowen. “As the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections have (hopefully) taught us, everything could be at stake, not only 2006 but, more importantly 2008, depending on the outcome of this race … As we have seen in Florida and Ohio, the position of secretary of state is key to the fairness of elections.”

McPherson has certified the “easily hackable” Diebold voting machine while Bowen, as chair of the Elections Committee in the Senate, has been doing “everything she can to make certain that the 2006 elections, themselves, are not stolen,” writes Kuehl. “This goes way beyond party and every party activist should be very, very concerned with whether or not there are accurate and honest elections in California.”

A final note: all the Democratic candidates for statewide office support marriage equality.